June 18-19, 2002: Australian Intelligence Warns Al-Qaeda-Linked Group Could Attack Bali and Other Targets; No New Public Warning Results

On June 18 and 19, 2002, the Australian Office of National Assessments (ONA) briefs Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer on regional terrorist threats. Downer asks if there are targets in the region that Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), al-Qaeda’s Southeast Asian affiliate, might hit. The ONA’s Indonesian specialist, David Farmer, replies that the Indonesian island of Bali and province of Riau, plus the country of Singapore, are the three most likely targets. Farmer says that “international hotels, nightclubs and airlines/airports [are] assessed as being high on terrorists’ target lists.” This is not based on any specific warning, but is an analysis based on an accumulation of information. Two weeks later, the Australian Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO) privately warns that “neither Jakarta nor Bali could be considered exempt from attack.” The Sydney Morning Herald will later comment that “although Australians have been told repeatedly that no ‘specific’ intelligence on Bali was available before October 12, dozens of reports by ASIO and the Office of National Assessments (ONA) warned of rising agitation in the region.… [T]he intelligence agencies did not pass on just how detailed the internal warnings had become and the accompanying sense of foreboding.” [Sydney Morning Herald, 7/15/2003; Sydney Morning Herald, 5/29/2004]