On June 18 and 19, 2002, the Australian Office of National Assessments (ONA) briefs Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer on regional terrorist threats. Downer asks if there are targets in the region that Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), al-Qaeda’s Southeast Asian affiliate, might hit. The ONA’s Indonesian specialist, David Farmer, replies that the Indonesian island of Bali and province of Riau, plus the country of Singapore, are the three most likely targets. Farmer says that “international hotels, nightclubs and airlines/airports [are] assessed as being high on terrorists’ target lists.” This is not based on any specific warning, but is an analysis based on an accumulation of information. Two weeks later, the Australian Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO) privately warns that “neither Jakarta nor Bali could be considered exempt from attack.” The Sydney Morning Herald will later comment that “although Australians have been told repeatedly that no ‘specific’ intelligence on Bali was available before October 12, dozens of reports by ASIO and the Office of National Assessments (ONA) warned of rising agitation in the region.… [T]he intelligence agencies did not pass on just how detailed the internal warnings had become and the accompanying sense of foreboding.” [Sydney Morning Herald, 7/15/2003; Sydney Morning Herald, 5/29/2004]
September 2002: Australian Intelligence Reportedly Overhears Al-Qaeda-Linked Group Plotting to Attack Australians in Southeast Asia
US News and World Report will claim shortly after the 2002 Bali bombings (see October 12, 2002) that unnamed US officials say that not long before the bombing, “conversations [were] intercepted by Australian intelligence of [Jemaah Islamiyah] operatives plotting to attack Australians in the region.” Jemaah Islamiyah is considered the al-Qaeda affiliate in Southeast Asia. [US News and World Report, 10/20/2002] This warning is based on “two intelligence sources.” The conversations were intercepted “in the weeks before” the Bali bombings. It is unclear whether the conversations were translated or analyzed before the bombings. [Sydney Morning Herald, 10/23/2002]
October 10, 2002: Australian Intelligence Privately Warns Al-Qaeda-Linked Group Is Likely to Attack US Interests Soon in Southeast Asia, but Public Not Warned
The Australian Office of National Assessments (ONA) issues an internal classified report. It says that further terror attacks in Southeast Asia are “on the cards”, including US targets in Indonesia. The Australian Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO) also warns that Jemaah Islamiyah, the al-Qaeda affiliate in Southeast Asia, is planning attacks on Singaporean interests, but Australian interests may be affected. It says that terrorist activity is likely to be focused on US economic interests, but could involve action against US allies such as Australia. The Sydney Morning Herald will later comment: “These warnings were never made public. Until the bombings, travel warnings continued to say that tourist services were operating normally, although there was a warning that further terrorist acts were possible.” [Sydney Morning Herald, 6/19/2003]
